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华安基金：价值周期共振，上周央企红利表现占优_我的网站

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一 | 　　行情回顾及主要观点：　　港股方面，上周恒生港股通中国央企红利指数上涨3.70%，恒生指数上涨3.56%，恒生科技指数上涨1.24%。A股方面，上周中证国企红利指数上涨1.36%，沪深300下跌0.94%。

二 | Republican Senator Bill Cassidy has argued that an energy and healthcare reconciliation bill, called the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 and supported by Chuck Schumer and Joe Manchin, could lead to a recession despite its sponsors’ assertions that the bill would help tackle rising prices.,Speaking to ABC News on Sunday, Cassidy said that “It [the bill] may be disinflationary by causing a recession. They’re interjecting an incredible amount of uncertainty into the economy just as we entered a recession.”,“Much of what he says about this bill is just not true” the Republican added, referring to Manchin’s earlier comments on the ABC News, in which the West Virginia Democrat in particular reiterated his support of the bill after claims that the measure could increase inflation over a year and a half.,Cassidy claimed that the bill would raise taxes and lead to higher costs for consumers, adding, “I think what we’re doing is inducing [manufacturers] to move to Asia. You can have a disinflationary program by causing a recession. I think this is going to lead to a worse recession.”,He spoke as Republican Senator Mike Crapo cited not-partisan data as indicating that the Manchin-Schumer deal on the reconciliation bill would “raise billions of dollars in taxes on Americans” earning less than $400,000 annually.,Crapo pointed to an analysis conducted by the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), which also found that taxes would soar by about $16.7 billion on US taxpayers making less than $200,000 in 2023 and raise another $14.1 billion on those who earn between $200,000 and $500,000.,Referring to the Manchin-Schumer deal, the Senate GOP argued that “Americans are already experiencing the consequences of Democrats’ reckless economic policies” and that “the mislabeled ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ will do nothing to bring the economy out of stagnation and recession.”,“The more this bill is analyzed by impartial experts, the more we can see Democrats are trying to sell the American people a bill of goods,” Crapo, who sits on the Senate Finance Committee as a ranking member and who requested the JCT analysis, asserted.,Ashley Schapitl , a spokesperson for the Senate Finance Committee’s Chair Ron Wyden, in turn insisted that families “will not pay one penny in additional taxes under this bill.”,Schapitl claimed that the JCT analysis isn’t complete because “it doesn’t include the benefits to middle-class families of making health insurance premiums and prescription drugs more affordable. The same goes for clean energy incentives for families.”,Joe Manchin, Chuck Schumer Reach Deal on Climate, Energy, and Taxes in Surprise Announcement27 July, 23:41 GMT,This comes after Senate Majority Leader Schumer and Democratic Senator Manchin announced a deal last Wednesday on the energy and health care bill, a scaled-down version of the Build Back Better Act that the West Virginia Democrat Manchin repeatedly stymied last year.,“After many months of negotiations, we have finalized legislative text that will invest approximately $300 billion in Deficit Reduction and $369.75 billion in Energy Security and Climate Change programs over the next 10 years,” the two senators said in a joint statement after clinching the deal.,According to them, “the investments will be fully paid for by closing tax loopholes on wealthy individuals and corporations.” They added that the new agreement aims to "reduce carbon emissions by roughly 40 percent by 2030" and address inflation while also reducing the deficit.,Republicans were quick to lash out at the agreement, with Texas Senator John Cornyn slamming the new document as “Manchin’s New Build Back Broke Bill”. Cornyn insisted that “Raising taxes on job creators, crushing energy producers with new regulations, and stifling innovators looking for new cures will only make this recession worse, not better.”,In a separate development last week, President Joe Biden argued that the US economy is "on the right path" despite the GDP taking a plunge, and pushing the country into a technical recession.,“It's no surprise that the economy is slowing down as the Federal Reserve acts to bring down inflation. Even as we face historic global challenges, we are on the right path and we will come through this transition stronger and more secure,” POTUS said.,Earlier, the Commerce Department stated that the country’s GDP contracted by 0.9% in the second quarter of this year after a first quarter drop of 1.6%, in a preliminary estimate that technically placed the economy in a recession.,This followed the White House arguing that “while some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, there are other factors that need to be taken into account. Conservatives were having none of it." The claims provoked flak from Republicans, with Donald Trump Jr. tweeting that “apparently the White House is changing the definition of recession this week so we can pretend that we're not in one.”。（数据来源：Wind，截至2026/8/21，均为对应全收益指数的收益率）　　上周港股市场延续上行，恒生港股通中国央企红利指数表现尤为突出，不仅取得较好的绝对收益，同时跑赢恒生指数、恒生科技指数、恒生互联网科技业指数以及中证国企红利指数。

三 | 值得关注的是，上周央企红利的相对优势并非来自市场风险偏好下降，相反，在港股整体上涨、成长板块同样有所表现的背景下，红利资产仍取得较强收益，反映当前市场上涨结构正在由前期相对集中的成长方向向价值与周期板块进一步扩散。　　从行业结构来看，银行与航运的共同走强依旧成为本周指数取得超额收益的重要支撑，但两者背后的逻辑较前期有所变化。银行板块在经历前期高股息逻辑驱动后，当前市场关注点逐步由单纯的股息价值转向盈利韧性与估值修复。与此同时，航运板块则受益于运价预期改善、有效运力约束以及行业景气延续，东方海外国际、中远海控等主要成分股表现活跃。银行的估值修复与航运的景气上行形成共振，使指数在港股整体风险偏好回升阶段同样具备较强的向上弹性。　　这一表现也进一步体现出港股通央企红利指数并非传统意义上的纯防御型红利资产。指数成分股虽然整体具备较高股息和较低估值特征，但银行、航运等行业本身又分别具有估值修复和周期景气属性。当市场风格向低估值方向扩散时，指数能够受益于估值修复，当部分周期行业景气上行时，又能够通过航运等板块获取盈利弹性。因此，在本轮港股上涨过程中，指数呈现出“高股息底仓+估值修复+周期景气”的多重驱动，也成为其阶段性跑赢港股主要宽基和成长指数的重要原因。　　港股通央企红利的股息率更高、估值更低。恒生港股通中国央企红利指数股息率达5.24%（vs中证红利4.30%），PB为0.60，PE为7.30，其全收益指数近五年累计收益131%，相对恒生全收益指数超额收益106%。中证国企红利指数股息率达4.26%，PB为0.88，PE为9.06，近五年全收益指数累计收益54%，相对沪深300全收益指数超额收益44%。（数据来源：Wind，截至2026/8/21）　　展望后市，国内降息周期下的低利率环境、经济弱复苏的背景均利好红利策略，市值管理指挥棒下央国企的分红意愿和能力均较强，港股通央企红利ETF华安（513920）与国企红利ETF华安（561060）配置价值较高。　　港股通央企红利ETF华安（513920）产品简介　　港股通央企红利ETF（513920）是全市场首支叠加港股、央企、红利三重属性的ETF，也是跟踪恒生港股通中国央企红利指数（HSSCSOY）的规模最大的ETF，该指数一指囊括港股优质高股息央企。

四 | 场外相关产品有：华安恒生港股通中国央企红利ETF联接A（020866）/联接C（020867）。　　港股通央企红利ETF华安（513920）产品概况交易代码基金名称净值规模（亿元）周成交额（亿元）513920华安港股通央企红利ETF1.694060.4510.88　　数据来源：Wind，华安基金，截至2026/8/21　　风险提示：　　以上仅为标的指数当前成份股分布的客观介绍，不构成任何投资建议，不作为投资收益的保证。